The market for renewable energy certificates in Australia is currently in freefall. Prices are dropping like a stone, making the cost of being green much cheaper for your retailer. Make sure it gets cheaper for you, too.
The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) is officially starting its Accelerating Smart Meter Deployment (ASMD) reforms. If you don’t already have a smart meter, you will by the end of 2030.
From July 1, 2025, new Default Offer pricing will take effect across Australia, affecting both the Default Market Offer (DMO) set by the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) and the Victorian Default Offer (VDO) determined by the Essential Services Commission (ESC).
Although only a minority of energy consumers are on default offers—approximately 8% in DMO regions and 12% of households in Victoria—these offers serve as benchmarks for the broader electricity market.
Changes in default offer prices often influence market offers, affecting a larger segment of consumers, and impact the apparent pricing for Market Offers since Market Offers are quoted as being x% above or below the Default Offer price.
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Default Market Offer (DMO): Set by the Australian Energy Regulator (AER), the DMO applies to New South Wales (NSW), South East Queensland (SE QLD), and South Australia (SA). It caps the maximum price retailers can charge residential and small business customers on standing offers and serves as a reference point for market offers.
Victorian Default Offer (VDO): Established by the Essential Services Commission (ESC) for Victoria, the VDO ensures that consumers who haven't engaged in the market receive a fair and reasonable price for electricity.esc.vic.gov.au+1esc.vic.gov.au+1
2025–26 Default Offer Prices
2025–26 Price Changes
Australian Energy Regulator (DMO):
From July 1, 2025, the AER's final determination indicates:
New South Wales: Residential customers on default plans will see increases between 8.3% and 9.7%. For instance, households in areas serviced by Essential Energy may experience annual bill increases from $2,513 to $2,741 .
South East Queensland: Increases range from 0.5% to 3.7% for residential customers.
South Australia: Residential customers face hikes between 2.3% and 3.2% .
Essential Services Commission (VDO):
In Victoria, the ESC's final decision for 2025–26 includes:
Residential Customers: An average annual bill increase of $20 (approximately 1%), with variations depending on the distribution zone. For example, customers in the CitiPower zone may see a $90 increase, while those in the Jemena zone could experience a $26 decrease.
Small Business Customers: An average annual bill increase of $90 (about 3%), with changes ranging from $10 to $177 across different zones
Default Market Offer (DMO) – Effective 1 July 2025
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The market for renewable energy certificates in Australia is currently in freefall. Prices are dropping like a stone, making the cost of being green much cheaper for your retailer. Make sure it gets cheaper for you, too.
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